Oddsmakers feel Avalanche can close out Lightning in Game 5

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It has been 21 years and 15 days since the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup. They have three chances to do it again, starting with Friday night at Denver.

Colorado leads the Stanley Cup Final 3-1 after beating the Lightning 3-2 in overtime at Tampa Bay on Wednesday night on what Lightning coach Jon Cooper said was a goal that shouldn’t have counted.

Now his team has to climb out of a big hole — and win two road games — to capture its third straight title.

The Lightning are a consensus underdog entering Game 5.

Avalanche favored to win Game 5

Colorado is a 1.5-goal favorite at DraftKings, where it has drawn one-sided action with 80 percent of the spread-line bets while Tampa Bay has garnered more of the spread handle at 58 percent.

The Avalanche opened at -150 at BetMGM but the line had moved to -175 by Friday with Colorado backed by 70 percent of the spread bets and 88 percent of the handle.

Tampa Bay faces a tough task that has been made even harder with injuries. Brayden Point, who didn’t play in Game 4, is likely out for Game 5 and Eric Cernak didn’t play much Wednesday, leaving Tampa Bay with just five defensemen most of the game.

Cooper did not have an update on injuries as of Thursday afternoon.

The Lightning are not ready to concede the title to the Avalanche despite the two-game hole.

“We haven’t lost yet,” Tampa Bay forward Pat Maroon said. “It’s the first one to four wins right now. We’ve got a challenge in front of us, but if it’s one team that can do it, it’s this team.”

The Lightning are facing elimination after Colorado had a few fortunate bounces in Game 4. The first Avalanche goal went off Nathan MacKinnon’s skate and the tying goal in the third period bounced off Andrew Cogliano’s leg.

Then there was the overtime goal, which Cooper thought happened with Colorado having six skaters on the ice. MacKinnon was skating toward the bench when Nazem Kadri jumped on the ice and scored the winner seconds later.

“It’s impossible to say what’s the right decision there,” Tampa Bay forward Ryan McDonagh said. “It’s so fast and it probably happens a million times a game more than we think.”

Avalanche looking for first Cup in 21 years

colorado avalanche
Jun 22, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Nazem Kadri (91) celebrates with teammates after scoring the game winning goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning during overtime in game four of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Avalanche are on the brink of a title, in part because of key lineup decisions. Coach Jared Bednar stuck with Darcy Kuemper in net and he came through with 37 saves Wednesday, and he put Kadri in the lineup for the first time since June 4.

He also shuffled the lines somewhat and tinkered with defensive pairings, putting Norris Trophy winner Cale Makar with Erik Johnson and pairing Devon Toews with Bowen Byram.

Byram was the one player who was certain Kadri’s shot went in despite confusion on the ice. The puck went under Andrei Vasilevskiy’s right arm and lodged in the top of the net, giving Colorado a dramatic win.

“I’ve been waiting for this my whole life,” Kadri said. “I figured it was time to join the party.”

The party will be big if the Avalanche can close it out on home ice Friday night. They are 7-2 at home in the playoffs, with both losses coming in the second round against St. Louis.

Colorado knows it can’t let up despite the 3-1 series lead. Andre Burakovsky is likely out for Friday, and despite his heroics, Kadri’s surgically repaired thumb is not 100 percent.

“They’re going to bring their best and we need to do the same thing,” Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog said of the Lightning. “It’s obviously exciting to get a big win on the road in overtime, but we have a big day of rest (Thursday) and get ready for Friday.”

The 6.0-goal Over/Under at BetMGM has seen the Over supported by 94 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the handle. Meanwhile, the most-bet player props have all been placed on MacKinnon: +900 to score the first goal of the game, +115 to score at any time during the game and -135 that he will take more than 4.5 shots.

DraftKings’ Over/Under is also at 6.0 total goals, with the Over receiving one-sided action with 80 percent of the bets while also drawing 66 percent of the spread handle.

–Field Level Media